While out for my walk last night, I listened to BBC Radio 4's flagship "PM" program.
Once they got finished talking about Russia.... they moved onto COVID-19, of course. Not to panic anyone, but they were basically saying this is going to be with us all for the rest of our lives - even the youngsters amongst us. The most optimistic expert said 36 months, but they thought that was unlikely. Successful vaccines will help, but they won't be a magic solution that makes everything go back to normal.
The program is well worth listening to.
As this "thing" has evolved, we've all evolved with it, and learned to cope in our own ways, bit by bit, day by day. But taken as a whole, this is really gigantically huge.
The cruise industry will NEVER be the same. There will be HUGE changes. And it is unclear when they can properly restart. The only thing I can possibly see working, is a ship doing trips out of a single country, and not visiting any other country, unless perhaps there is an "sea-bridge" agreement in place, similar to they are doing with the "air bridges" for airplanes - although it remains to be seen if that is a sensible idea or not.
So here's my "hot take"
- It won't just be small cruise lines that fail, big or even huge ones will too.
- It won't just be small and older ships getting scrapped, modern ones will too.
- New builds in process will have to be cancelled, even if underway. Surely.
- There is the potential for the entire cruise industry to just become not viable at all, except perhaps the ultra luxury small ships
- Even if they get ships going again, many many people, myself included, will simply not want to be trapped in a steel air-conditioned box with thousands of other people. I think for me I will probably not cruise again.
- Speaking as a Brit, I think Brexit is an utter disaster, however I am trying to think of ways to make the best of it now. And one way would be for us to turn our hand to ship recycling pronto...